Concerns over the exceptionally high volume in FOREX markets
Has anyone else noticed the insane volume levels that have been recorded on the commodities and major exchanges? Over the last 7 months volumes have jumped from 15-20k average to 400-500k average globally.
I know people have mixed feelings about NNF, and I respect that. Still deciding my thoughts as well. That said, he utilized an indicator that seems valuable, but I have had trouble finding. He calls it “volume”, although my guess it is not quite the case. In short, it keeps him out of chop (thinking mixes of gauges if trend strength/volatility/etc). SO, he calls it volume. Call it what you like, but what do you use? What keeps you out of false signals, and what gives you confidence that your signal has some room to move? Lastly, I am trying to keep this code centric. I too believe in Supply and demand, but I want to hear about some of the lesser known indies out there!
Dukascopy/Tickstory forex volume data is not trading volume
Getting Dukascopy / Tickstory forex data (I think the most famous free source of forex tick data), I noticed that the tick data csv has "bid volume" and "ask volume" columns. Getting bar data for them, the "volume" column is just the sum of the "bid volume" of all ticks in the bar. The way I understand the tick data, "bid volume" and "ask volume" are not real trading volumes, but rather the quantities in the top level of the order book (highest bid and lowest ask). If this is true, the "volume" data column in the bar data is very misleading, and this very famous and widely used data source does not contain 1) actual trading prices 2) trading volume. Am I missing something? Dukascopy data can be obtained here: https://www.dukascopy.com/plugins/fxMarketWatch/?historical_data
Follow the Money: How a Comparison between Bitcoin and Forex Volume serves as a bellwether for political unrest.
Follow the Money. Interesting that out of the top 8 Bitcoin traded countries/currency (USD, JPY, EURO, KRW, GBD, PLN, TRY, RUB/RUR) only 4 (USD, JPY, EURO and GBD) are in the top 8 Forex pairings. The others are minor currencies. Top 8 Forex crosses are: EuUSD USD/JPY GBD/USD AUD/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD EUJPY EUCHF Based upon the comparison between the Bitcoin and Forex Volume we can conclude that in Korea, Poland, Russia and Turkey (numbers 4, 6, 7 and 8 on bitcoin chart) there is a feeling of unrest among those with discretionary cash. Why put discretionary cash in bitcoin if you feel secure? Are tariffs, sanctions, internal unrest reasons? Follow the money and your questions will be answered.
Some say that prices can be a good reflection of a market's volume. At least, they seem to positively correlate. Forex market: $7 Trillion average daily volume Crypto market: $15 Billion average daily volume (When BTC was at $20k, crypto daily volume hit around $60 billion) If crypto can match 10% of Forex's volume, we're looking at a $200k Bitcoin. Interesting thought to feed my dopamine receptors, what y'all think?
I know that forex volume is the numer of ticks, therefore, not a true volume as in stocks or futures. But what do you guys think about their usage in Forex market? Is volume different from different brokers providing the chart data? It seems like all volume based indicator is useless in Forex if each broker provides different volume data. Anyone here that do use them?
The Forex Scalping Indicators MT4 is very meant to help analyze short-term price fluctuations. It's one of the very extensively used by many active traders on the volume indicator mt4 market for the Meta Trader platform. For the long-term investors, the scalping indicator might help determine good points to enter or exit by helping in speculating on future price levels or trends through the proper evaluation of past patterns. The Meta Trader 4 is really a Forex indicator developed utilizing the MQL4 programming language. It can be used to create manual Forex trading strategies. Meta Trader 4 indicators may be categorized into several groups - general purpose, multi- time period, divergence, statistical, and free foreign exchange indicators. These may be downloaded online which will give you a chance to test them before actual deployment on the Meta Trader platform. Additional alerts for the MT4 indicator may be put set up including email, sound, and pop-up alerts. Choosing the Right Forex Scalping Indicators There are several factors that need to be considered when selecting the correct Forex scalping indicators MT4 to use. For starters, divergence indicators are generally most accurate in flat Forex markets the same as other oscillators. They are therefore advisable to utilize with MT4 indicators when determining the possible direction the Forex market will go. There's also specific indicators that work best with MT4 for various purposes such as Forex scalping, intraday trading, and even for long-term Forex trading strategies. Recommended is to judge various Forex indicators from different sources and try them out on the Meta Trader platform. Using several divergence indicators in conjunction with the indicators of Forex market tendencies might help clean up an enter signal and allow it to be possible to secure a great position in a trending market. The Great things about Meta Trader 4 Indicators One a valuable thing about these MT4 indicators is they include source code in MQ4 file format. This means you can break it down and manually analyze what it is supposed to complete, and make adjustments when necessary. Likewise, the Forex scalping indicators have already been tested by experienced professional Forex traders. The indicators aren't rehashed and they employ proven mathematical algorithms in the program. Additional alerts may also be available and can certainly be installed if required. The Forex Scalping Strategy A lot of trades work for only some minutes, less than a minute even in some instances, and the targets are normally from 5 to 15 pips. The concept is to obtain in and out with some profits wherever possible, and to immediately get free from bad positions to get ready for future trades. Experienced day traders who use a relatively longer time period use the same Forex scalping indicators MT4 within their trading strategy. The reason being it is user friendly and doesn't present a lot of complications which really is a a valuable thing as you don't intend to stay long in the trading market for long periods at a time. In this way, you will have a way to optimize gains while at the same time frame minimize your losses from losing trades.
Is forex scalable? bad risk management #1 reason why people fail? Less than a year of paper trading?
When I think of investing a lot of time into getting good at something I want it to have potential to be scaled up to the moon. When getting into commerce for example, I can open stores at many different locations. I've seen a lot of people saying that traders who know what they are doing can hope for 15-20% profit a month. With that math, good trader can turn $1000 into 700k in just 3 years and later and at the end of 4th year that number would be at $6m. Of course I don't believe it is possible. I just want to know what's the potential endgame? and how many years does it take for people to reach it? I'd assume in forex volume of trades done each minute is really damn big. What stops someone from putting in 100k, 500k or $1m on a single position and seeing fairly similar results as if he put only $1k?
Next question is about risk managment. When reading various posts I've seen many people acknowledging the fact that they didn't implement proper risk managment strategy when they first started which was one, if not the biggest reason why it took them longer before they saw satisfying results. Is risk management as simple as for example always S/L @ -1% and P/T @ 1.5%? If I stick to it from the beginning and always get out at 1% loss. Can it potentially drastically improve my chances of becoming good at it faster? Are people with the right mindset who don't get tilted as easily and turn off their emotions during trading, set up, for the higher success ratio?
and lastly, for how long should one paper trade? Is it doable to learn enough about forex to see positive results with real cash in 6-12 months? Not that I have anything else to do during covid. I would assume copying working strategies, learning patterns and how to analize charts shouldn't take longer than that
Anyone have a suggestion? I want to keep my charts in time scales and not tick, but I would like a study at the bottom or indicator showing me the cumulative ticks for a given time period. Any ideas? Like a volume of sorts, although I know forex doesn’t have a true volume, there is a tick count.
Cross-Border Transactions Using Crypto (XRP, XLM, etc.) Will Never Be Adopted. Here's Why
so, all these crypto rabid fans like XRP and XLM supporters always believe that one day banks will adopt crypto as bridge currencies to send money from country A to country B. Their reason? Because banks need nostro vostro accounts and by using crypto they can eliminate the need of such accounts. But this argument is deeply flawed, here's why If you know crypto liquidity, you know they are all bad. XRP has just $1.6 billion daily trading volume, which I'm pretty sure 80% of this volume comes from daytraders' bot trying to buy and sell all the time on crypto exchanges (just like the problem with all cryptocurrencies including bitcoin itself) With such tiny tiny volume, why on earth any bank would use xRapid to send money overseas? Forex volume is huge and require huge liquidity, that's why nostro and vostro accounts exist. To provide this 'liquidity'. XRP's volume is extremely tiny, so it does not make sense for any bank to use a currency with super tiny liquidity to send money overseas. It's like asking people "would you buy a phone that does not use android or iOS"? DUH! there's no app. it's a "chicken and egg" situation all over again. Same thing here with crypto
Is trading forex 'easier' due to lack of centralized volume?
So I'm pretty new to all this. I am wondering if lack of centralized exchange for forex makes it 'easier' to trade it. I'm thinking this because this is one less 'edge' that anyone can have. I feel like the less edge others can have, the simpler it might be for everyone. Obviously an extreme example, but let's say if charts are all that anyone have to base their trades on, then everyone will be looking for the same patterns. So then there is a higher probability of those patterns working out. Am I wrong?
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After reviewing video interviews and reading people's perception of the OMG Network, I wanted to derive certain values of the markets which OmiseGO is attempting to enter in 4 main sections. As well the potential market penetration and expectation once the OMG Network goes live. 1) Peer to Peer Transactions This portion is to allow any individual who uses the OMG Network to trade with another individual by transferring funds. The following is yearly trading volumes through various companies and applications: E-Transfer - $63 Billion E-Transfer 2016 Volume Western Union - $80 Billion Western Union 2016 Volume PayPal - $354 Billion PayPal 2016 Volume AliPay/WeChat - $3 Trillion AliPay/WeChat 2016 Volume P2P Total - $3.497 Trillion 2) Current Omise Partnerships I won't go into much detail with the following as it was already mentioned. All the current partnerships that Omise currently has will be using the OMG Network, therefore all their financial activity will be transacted. Analysis of the Merchants of Omise Partners Total - Approx $30 Billion 3) Foreign Exchange Trading This is the most exciting aspect of OmiseGO on which they will be providing to the masses. The ability to transact any currency into the currency of their choice. This is through their White Label Wallet SDK that companies will be able to create their unique applications on top of the OMG Network. Correct me if I am wrong, but this could also allow the use of their White Label Wallet SDK to create a Foreign Exchange for trading purposes. The amount that is traded on Foreign Currency each day is roughly $3 Trillion. Reuters Foreign Echange Volume FX Total - $1095 Trillion 4) Crypto Exchange Trading Lastly, similar to the last point, there can easily be a Decentralized Crypto Exchange that can be created using the OMG network. Through looking at volumes on a 30 Day Period, it is easy to estimate a yearly projection. The previous 30 Days there was $853.2 Billion traded on various markets according to Coin Market Cap. Therefore the estimation would place a yearly total as being $10.38 Trillion over 365 Days of Trading. Coin Market Cap CX Total - $10.38 Trillion Overall Estimation of all 4 Sections - $1,108.907 Trillion. Therefore once the Network goes live, that is an estimated total amount, that can be eventually transacted. However it is not likely that the OMG Network will transact all of the above. If we assume we only obtain 1% of the Market by the end of 2018 in each sector, the OMG Network can be transacting close to $11.089 Trillion. Dependent on the Transaction Fee that is associated with the OMG Network, the following amounts could be distributed to Token Holders for each token. For Example: Total Token Supply: 140,245,398 * (Estimation of 75% of Tokens Staked) = 105,184,048.5 Transaction Fee: 1% - 11.089 Trillion * 0.01 = 110.89 Billion / 105,184,048.50 = $1054.25 .5% - 11.089 Trillion * 0.005 = 55.445 Billion / 105,184,048.50 = $527.12 .1% - 11.089 Trillion * 0.001 = 11.089 Billion / 105,184,048.50 = $105.42 People have been mentioning Transaction Fee Rates to be 0.5% as the base. This means there is potentially a much smaller Transaction Fee that could be obtained that makes the OMG Network competitive and much more focused on providing user more for their daily use. I believe the Transaction Fee should be much less, but still shows the value OMG could be delivering to the world in the future. Conclusion Based on the above information it clearly shows what potential markets we could be helping by lowering fees to everyone on a global scale. I did not include Credit Card Transactions as that requires a Credit system, as this Network would mainly be dependent on Debit Transactions, meaning individuals already have Fiat/Crypto/Reward Points in their possession. Credit amounts can be calculated later once there are banks using this application with their Credit Services. As well there is currently no market for trading reward points, therefore it can not be accurately estimated on how much it will be used. If you have any comments or questions on what I have stated please let me know. The above is information that I have found and thought it may benefit the community from understanding the possibility and the markets that OmiseGO will be aiding in the future. Please discuss any information that I may have missed and might find beneficial to add. EDIT: Thank you ii_OiO_ii for correcting my mistake on the FX Amount. I have made the adjustments.
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Volume indicators are used to determine investors' interest in the market. High volume, especially near important market levels, suggests a possible start of a new trend, while low volume suggests traders uncertainty and/or no interest in a particular market. In Forex Volume data represents total number of quotes for the specified time period. When there is volume in the Forex market overall, and when there is volume in a particular currency pair, price has a high chance of trending. When volume is lacking, in a currency pair or in the market overall, price has a small chance of trending one way or the other. Why? Because volume moves the market. It’s the fuel. It’s the wind. With this volume, it is stating my risk (“Profit”) is $19.20 which is what I want ($4000 account, I want to risk 0.5% which is $20). If the risk is not what I want it to be, I simply change the volume and re-calculate until I know the volume I want. Calculating Volume For Non-Forex Markets. But I have an issue. The Forex market is a decentralized market, which means that there is no formula for volume or method of keeping track of the number of contract and contract sizes, such as in the stock market. The Forex market measures volume by counting the tick movements. Volume is a measure of the quantity of a given forex instrument traded in the market over a specified time. The market trades forex pairs at varying frequencies depending on the prevailing demand posture. Over time, the volume of forex instruments depicts patterns that one can track using volume indicators.
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